Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 185.384526 218.503242 257.473934 307.155358 369.438826 445.786141 5.477794e+02
2025-11-02 143.716096 183.250342 234.743679 308.212829 412.864761 560.661185 7.929919e+02
2025-11-09 116.847073 157.305115 213.907583 301.601273 439.305322 657.136215 1.050321e+03
2025-11-16 98.820495 138.657522 197.558835 294.998170 460.781458 749.754846 1.340468e+03
2025-11-23 85.560182 124.097154 183.686802 287.775267 477.404800 837.481784 1.663168e+03
2025-11-30 80.723157 121.255838 187.005271 308.885725 548.638635 1051.460828 2.377786e+03
2025-12-07 73.723517 113.762964 181.171951 312.154655 586.399377 1211.684140 3.078334e+03
2025-12-14 68.583523 108.534210 178.198923 319.840014 635.181594 1417.810201 4.083360e+03
2025-12-21 63.134648 102.012386 171.816927 319.284634 665.470664 1591.928601 5.159984e+03
2025-12-28 61.292000 101.567619 176.514510 342.570968 759.567252 1991.571953 7.617501e+03
2026-01-04 58.937734 99.854141 178.441088 360.193063 845.853034 2422.876114 1.098775e+04
2026-01-11 56.479754 97.623175 178.954581 374.661276 929.225540 2904.221713 1.575873e+04
2026-01-18 53.404821 94.012799 176.443699 382.285576 999.185117 3405.831500 2.237179e+04
2026-01-25 50.173246 89.747115 171.974681 384.203298 1053.462757 3897.457674 3.106740e+04
2026-02-01 46.527326 84.262917 164.109162 375.625481 1070.411970 4238.502423 4.009293e+04
2026-02-08 43.279730 79.278613 156.738936 366.972219 1084.698365 4588.850242 5.181911e+04
2026-02-15 40.327823 74.630863 149.568383 357.495361 1093.066441 4923.978172 6.648426e+04
2026-02-22 39.910465 75.301557 154.876295 385.263507 1259.282702 6450.429351 1.302948e+05
2026-03-01 38.155932 72.901291 152.509079 389.575920 1332.470624 7475.767438 2.082480e+05
2026-03-08 36.842127 71.344606 152.014915 399.726235 1437.963676 8961.439488 3.788732e+05
2026-03-15 35.099447 68.667783 148.377361 398.992172 1493.449904 10139.187917 6.301085e+05
2026-03-22 34.891960 69.460233 153.748811 429.849586 1726.580719 13743.673159 2.023316e+06
2026-03-29 34.313931 69.334217 156.696822 453.304347 1940.163211 17968.869556 7.865963e+06